CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 16 Nov 06:00 - Thu 17 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC) + + + FORECAST PERIOD CORRECTED
ISSUED: 15 Nov 23:38 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Intense long-wave trough evades into Europe. At the southern flank ... cut-off trough over Iberian Peninsula merges to the polar jet and accelerates northeastward. Affected area over central Mediterranean is covered by steep lapse rates originating from Africa. At lower levels ... rich moisture is present.

DISCUSSION

...Central Mediterranean...
CAPE up to several 100 J/kg is forecast over central Mediterranean. As upper short-wave trough approaches ... thunderstorms are expected to form over a widespread region. Given quite strong (20m/s) DLS ... a few well-organized multicells/supercells should develop. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main severe thread. A tornado is not ruled out given locally strong LLS.

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